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Аватар пользователя Валентин Мурзаев

Так называется статья Лилии Шевцовой в «Ежедневном журнале», где даются некоторые контуры нынешнего выхода из ситуации в России. Тезисы следующие.

1. России не обязательно повторить тот путь перехода от авторитаризму к свободному обществу, которые прошли другие страны. Ибо нет опыта трансформации ядерной державы, начинающейся возвращаться к роли «уникальной цивилизации». Но все же есть некоторые проверенные практики и механизмы перехода, которые следует учитывать.

2. Мотором и движущей силой трансформации всегда и везде были интеллектуалы.

3. Самыми эффективными способами борьбы с авторитаризмом были: 1) признание его нелегитимности широкими слоями общества; 2) приверженность оппозиции принципу ненасилия; 3) борьба за свободные выборы на основе новых правил игры.

4. В странах, где произошла успешная мирная трансформация, оппозиция прежде всего обращала свое внимание на формирование объединение всех политических сил, которые были готовы признать идею правового государства и политической конкуренции - создание общедемократического фронта.

5. Одновременно оппозиция искала недовольных внутри власти и прежде всего среди силовиков, которые в случае активных действиях оставались в казармах.

6. Отношение к выборам в условиях авторитаризма было разное. В случае устойчивости правящих режимов власть переигрывала оппозицию, используя выборы для собственной легитимации, и здесь эффективным было их бойкотирование (Польша, ЮАР, Филиппины и т.д.). А по мере ослабления режимов оппозиция начинала принимать участие в выборах, что стало решающим для мирного ухода авторитаризма.

7. Регулярные протестные акции преследовали несколько целей: сделать процесс выхода людей на улицу общественным ритуалом, отучить общество от страха перед властью и отмобилизовать готовое к сопротивлению протестное меньшинство. В то же время задача предотвращения насилия не была полностью решена нигде.

8. Для того, чтобы протестная волна не привела к появлению еще более репрессивного режима, оппозиция с самого начала должна размышлять о том, как консолидировать демократию — как создать новые правила игры, которые бы воспрепятствовали реставрации персоналистской власти. Наилучшим в этом плане была легитимация нового через использование нелегитимного старого (например, франкизм в Испании).

9. Существенна роль контактов оппозиции с мировым общественным мнением, с мировой прессой и с зарубежными правозащитными организациями.

Агонии нет. Пока с нефтью и газом все хорошо. Госсектор и подчиненный крупный бизнес занимают лидирующие позиции во всей экономике. Вероятно, их доля 60-70% в реальности. Передел экономики идет в их пользу. Гражданское общество 1,2% ВВП. Средний класс не более 6% по численности.

Аватар пользователя Валентин Мурзаев

С газом уже не все хорошо. Из-за усиленного внедрения разработки сланцевых месторождений.

А насчет остального - так в Давосе был для России сделан неблагоприятный прогноз экономического развития даже в том случае, если цены на энергоносители поднимутся. И Медведев тут же цинично плюнул на эти прогнозы.

Искренне ваш, админ Валентин.

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